Nijerya'da İklim Değişikliğinin Sağlık Harcamaları Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri: Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL Modelinden EldeEdilen Kanıtlar
Özet
Giriş: Bu çalışma, iklim değişikliğinin Nijerya'nın sağlık harcamaları üzerindeki asimetrik etkilerini göstermektedir. İklim değişikliği, dünyanın karşı karşıya olduğu en büyük çevresel zorluklardan biri olarak kabul edilmekte ve insan sağlığı için ciddi bir tehdit oluşturmaktadır. Günümüzde dünya genelinde iklime duyarlı hastalıkların artan yaygınlığı büyük ölçüde çevresel bozulmanın bir sonucudur. İklim şokları ve ilişkili aşırı hava koşulları, insan sağlığı üzerinde büyük zorluklar yaratmış ve hükümet ve hanehalkı sağlık harcamalarında artışa yol açmıştır.
Yöntem: 1990'dan 2023'e kadar olan dönemde Granger nedensellik testiyle birlikte doğrusal olmayan otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (NARDL) yaklaşımı kullanılarak bir zaman serisi analizi yürütülmüştür. İklim değişikliği, karbon emisyonu (CO2) ve sıcaklık anomalileri kullanarak ölçülmüştür. Değişkenlerin olası asimetrik etkilerini belirlemek için karbon emisyonu (CO2) ve sıcaklık anomalisi pozitif ve negatif kısmi toplamlara ayrılmıştır.
Sonuçlar ya da Bulgular: Bulgular, pozitif sıcaklık ve CO2 şoklarının hem kısa hem de uzun vadede maliyetleri önemli ölçüde artırdığını ve iklim için eyleme geçmenin aciliyetini vurgulamaktadır. Tersine, negatif CO2 şokları uzun vadeli sağlık harcamalarında azalmaya yol açar, bu da CO2’i azaltmanın potansiyel etkisini göstermektedir. CO2 emisyonlarından kişi başına düşen sağlık harcamalarına doğru kurulan tek yönlü nedensellik, emisyon azaltma hedefli politikaların uygulanmasının gerekliliğini güçlendirmiştir.
Tartışma ya da Yapılan Çıkarımlar: Sıcaklık ve CO2'deki pozitif şokun sağlık harcamalarını önemli ölçüde artırdığı bulgusu, iklim değişikliğiyle mücadele stratejilerine acil ihtiyaç olduğunu ortaya koymuştur.
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