Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamalarının Fonksiyonel Bileşimi ve Enflasyon Dinamikleri: Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Fourier Toda–Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37241/jatss.2026.143Anahtar Kelimeler:
kamu harcamaları- enflasyon dinamikleri- fourier toda–yamamotoÖzet
Giriş: Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de enflasyon ile kamu harcamalarının fonksiyonel bileşimi arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemekte ve maliye politikasının fiyat dinamiklerini yalnızca harcama büyüklüğü üzerinden değil, aynı zamanda harcamaların fonksiyonel dağılımı yoluyla da etkilediğini vurgulamaktadır. Türkiye’nin kalıcı enflasyon sorunları ve politika rejimi değişimleri dikkate alındığında, farklı kamu harcama kalemlerinin enflasyonla nasıl etkileşime girdiğinin anlaşılması büyük önem taşımaktadır.
Yöntem: Analizde, 2006Q1–2025Q2 dönemini kapsayan üç aylık veriler kullanılmış ve Genel Kamu Hizmetleri, Ekonomik İşler, Sağlık, Eğitim ve Sosyal Koruma harcamalarının GSYİH içindeki payları dikkate alınmıştır. Değişkenlerin farklı bütünleşme derecelerine sahip olması ve önceden belirlenemeyen yumuşak yapısal kırılmaların varlığı nedeniyle Fourier genişletilmiş Toda–Yamamoto nedensellik yaklaşımı uygulanmıştır.
Sonuçlar ya da Bulgular: Elde edilen bulgular, kamu harcamalarının enflasyon üzerindeki etkilerinin harcama kalemlerine göre farklılaştığını göstermektedir. Genel Kamu Hizmetleri ve Sağlık harcamalarından enflasyona doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilirken; Ekonomik İşler, Eğitim ve Sosyal Koruma harcamaları ile enflasyon arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri belirlenmiştir. Bu durum, bazı harcama kalemlerinde geri besleme mekanizmalarının varlığına işaret etmektedir.
Tartışma ya da Yapılan Çıkarımlar: Sonuçlar, Türkiye’de enflasyon dinamiklerinin yalnızca toplam kamu harcaması düzeyine değil, harcamaların fonksiyonel bileşimine de güçlü biçimde bağlı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Politika açısından, harcama kalemlerine özgü enflasyonist etkileri dikkate alan bir kamu harcaması bileşimi, fiyat istikrarını desteklemede maliye politikasının etkinliğini artırabilir.
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