Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe Sermaye Yapısını Belirleyen Faktörler: MARS Yaklaşımı

Süleyman Kale; Kübra  Yılmaz

doi:10.37241/jatss.2025.123

Authors

Süleyman Kale Kırklareli University, Faculty of Applied Sciences, , Department of Finance and Banking, Kırklareli/ Türkiye https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7208-1872
Kübra Yılmaz Istanbul University, Institute of Social Sciences, Department of Econometrics, Istanbul/Türkiye https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9544-8523

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37241/jatss.2025.123

Keywords:

MARS, capital adequacy ratio, capital structure, Turkish banking sector

Abstract

Introduction: This study examines bank-specific and macroeconomic factors that may influence the capital structure of the Turkish banking sector. The health of the banking sector fundamentally depends on two aspects; the soundness of asset structure and the robustness of capital structure. Therefore, analyzing capital adequacy in the banking sector is of great importance.

Method: The study utilizes the MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines) method using monthly data from 64 banks covering the period from October 2012 to December 2024.

Results or Findings: The analysis successfully reveals the nonlinear relationships in the data, with the selected variables explaining 79.0% of the variation in the capital adequacy ratio. The variables "Total Cash Loans/Total Deposits, Non-Performing Loans/Total Cash Loans, and Total Securities/Total Deposits" have a significant impact on capital adequacy, while the ratios "Net Profit for the Period/Average Equity, Net Profit for the Period/Average Assets, and Liquid Assets/Total Assets" have a relatively smaller effect. The variables "Non-Interest Income/Non-Interest Expenses, BIST 100 Index, Broad Money Supply, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Industrial Production Index, and CPI change rate" were found to have no significant impact on capital adequacy.

Discussion or Conclusion: In general, it can be stated that bank-specific factors have a significant influence on capital adequacy, while macroeconomic factors do not have a notable effect.

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