Validity of Wagner Hypothesis in OECD Countries: Kónya Panel Causality Test
Abstract
Public expenditures are all expenditures made by states to fulfill their required demands, while economic growth is the rise in the market value of the country's final products and services produced during a certain time compared to the preceding one. The validity of the Wagner Hypothesis was examined in this study, which investigated the causality between public spending and economic development for 28 OECD countries from 1990 to 2020. Panel unit root and causality tests were chosen based on the results of cross-sectional correlation and heterogeneity testing. Following the stationarity test, the Kónya panel causality test produced findings for the whole panel as well as each country in the panel. According to the results, it was determined that the Keynes View was valid in some countries at some significance levels and that there was a causality between public spending and economic growth. However, the Wagner Hypothesis was not valid for the whole panel.
Metrics
References
Akdoğan, A. (2011), Kamu Maliyesi, Ankara: Gazi Kitapevi.
Akkaya Ş., Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. & Bakkal U. (2021). Fiscal Competition and Public Expenditure Composition In The Era of Globalization: Panel Data Analysis, Theoretical & Applied Economics, 28,1, 167-182.
Şimşek, A. (2019), Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Seçilmiş Üst Orta Gelir Grubu Ülkeler Üzerine Panel Nedensellik Analizi, Batman Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
Altıner, A. (2019). OECD Ülkelerinde Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 33, 3, 849-870.
Blanchard, O. (2017). Macroeconomics, Londra: Pearson Education.
Chang, T. (2002). An Econometric Test of Wagner’s Law for Six Countries Base on Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling Techniques, Applied Economics, 34, 9, 1157-1169. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840110074132
Courakis, A., Moura-Roque & F., Tridimas, G. (1993). Public Expenditure Growth In Greece and Portugal: Wagner's Law and Beyond, Applied Economics, 25, 1, 125-134. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849300000121
Çelik, A. A. (2010). Ekonomik Büyüme ile Kamu Harcamalarının Nedensellik Analizi: Suudi Arabistan, B. A. Emirlikleri ve Kuveyt Uygulaması, Marmara Üniversitesi Ortadoğu Araştırmaları Enstitüsü Doktora Tezi.
Devarajan, S., Swaroop,V. & Zou, H. (1996). The Composition of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth, Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 2, 313-344. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(96)90039-2
Fasano, U., Wang, Q. (2001). Fiscal Expenditure Policy and Non-Oil Economic Growth: Evidence From GCC Countries, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=880314, (Erişim: 06.02.2006) DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.880314
Işık, N., Alagöz, M. (2005). Kamu Harcamaları ve Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24, 63-75.
Kalhan, D. (2021). Kamu Harcamaları ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin Panel Veri Analizi, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
Kamacı, A., Kılıç, H. (2019). Kamu Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Örneği, Politik Ekonomik Kuram, 3, 1, 113-128. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.547516
Kocaoğlu, D. (2019). Orta Gelirli Ülkelerde Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Bir Panel Veri Seti Analizi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Ensitüsü Yüksek Lisans Tezi. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18026/cbayarsos.786505
Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23, 6, 978-992. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008
Landau, D. (1983). Government Expenditure and Economic Growth: Across Country Study, Southern Economic Journal, 49, 3, 783-792. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1058716
Nadaroğlu, H. (2000). Kamu Maliyesi Teorisi, İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayım.
Nargeleçekenler, M. (2009). Makroekonomik ve Finansal Serilerin Ekonometrik Analizi: Panel Veri Yaklaşımı, Uludağ Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Doktora Tezi.
Niloy, B., Haque, M. & Osborn, D. (2003). Public Expenditure and Growth In Developing Countries: Education Is The Key, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research, School of Economic Studies, University of Manchester.
Peacock, A. T., & Wiseman, J. (1967). The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom, Alan and Unwin, 1.
Ram, R. (1986). Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidence From Cross Section and Time Series Data, The American Economic Review, 36, 1, 191-203. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/451636
Rao, B. (1989). Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidence From Cross Section and Time Series Data Comment, The American Economic Review, 79,1, 272-280.
Türk , İ. (2005). Kamu Maliyesi, Ankara: Turhan Kitabevi.
Wagner, R. E., & Weber, W. E. (1977). Wagner's Law, Fiscal Institutions and The Growth of Government, National Tax Journal, 30, 1, 59-68. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41862113
Yavuzyiğit, M. (2019). Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Panel Data Analizi, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yüksek Lisans Tezi
Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi, İstanbul: Beta .