Türk Turizm Endeks Getirileri ve Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği Arasındaki Bağın Yeniden Değerlendirilmesi: Kısmi Dalgacık Bağdaşımı Analizi
Özet
Bu çalışma, Türk turizm hisse senedi endeksi getirileri ile ekonomik politika belirsizliği (EPU) endeksleri arasındaki literatürde tespit edilmiş negatif ilişkiyi yeniden değerlendirmektedir. Çalışmada, 1997-2003 dönemini kapasayan çeşitli EPU endeksleri kullanılarak, ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin Turizm işletmelerinin hisse senedi getirileri için, diğer sektörlere olandan farklı, özel bir etkisinin bulunup bulunmadığı araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla, BIST 100 ve reel efektif döviz kuru endekslerinin kontrol değişkenleri olarak kullanıldığı Kısmi Dalgacık Bağdaşımı analiziyle bu ilişki yenden ele alınmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, BIST 100 endeks getirilerinin kontrol değişkeni olarak kullanıldığı durumda EPU endeksleri ile Türk turizm ekdeks getirileri arasındaki ilişkinin ortadan kalkma eğiliminde olduğunu, dolayısıyla da ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin Türk turizm hisselerinin üzerinde özel bir etkisinin olmadığını göstermektedir. Ancak reel efektif döviz kurlarındaki değişimler de kontrol değişkeni olarak analize eklendikten sonra Avrupa'daki (özellikle Fransa'da ve daha az ölçüde Almanya'da) politika belirsizliklerinin etkisi ortaya çıkmaktadır.
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