Geopolitical Analysis of the Transnistrian Frozen Conflict in the Context of the Ukraine Crisis

Abstract

In this study, the Transnistria problem is evaluated through its strategic location between east and west. What is the geopolitical significance of the conflict between Transnistria and Moldova in the regional and international arena? Does the Ukraine War pose a security risk to the European Union based on the geopolitics of Transnistria? Is the European Union developing a new approach to the Transnistria problem in the axis of the Ukraine conflict in terms of its enlargement policies and security strategies? How does the Ukraine conflict shape energy and trade routes policies by creating a perception of regional restraint through Transnistria? On the basis of the aforementioned questions, this article analyzes the use of the Transnistria problem as a strategic buffer zone against the enlargement policies of the Russian Federation, European Union and NATO. It discusses about how Transnistria, as an example of frozen conflict, evolved from a domestic conflict to a regional frozen conflict and the risk of turning into a hot conflict. Within the framework of the analyzes made, it has been seen that the frozen Transnistrian conflict has the potential to turn into a hot conflict in terms of geopolitical terms and when evaluated together with the Ukraine crisis, the multi-actor nature of the crisis has the potential to create a regional security crisis in terms of military, economic and sociological terms.